Second Quarter 2025 North American Equity Strategy
From its high on February 19, 2025, the S&P500 bottomed April 8th down -18.9% (Exhibit 1). Technically we avoided a bear market during the second quarter 2025, defined as greater than a -20% drop, as the S&P500 recovered from Trump’s April 2nd Liberation Day surprise with the announced 90 day pause on reciprocal tariffs announced on April 9th. With that reprieve, the S&P500 fully recovered to its previous high by the end of the second quarter. Meanwhile, the TSX hit new highs during this quarter. The S&P500 total return was +10.94% in U.S. dollars. Adjusting for currency, the S&P500 returned +5.15% in Canadian dollars, as the Canadian dollar increased US +3.99 cents over the same time frame to US $0.7349 . The TSX total return was +8.53% in the second quarter.