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Owen Morgan / July 4th, 2025

Second Quarter 2025 Fixed Income Strategy Review

April was a tense month, beginning with the Liberation Day announcement by the US President on April 2. The proposed tariffs were broader, deeper higher than most analysts’ expectated.

The Treasury Bond market reacted strongly (a recap stated it “went into convulsions”). The 10-Year Treasury Bond yield rose 64 basis points in two days, a major move for a market where high single-digit moves in a day are more common. Rising bond yields mean falling bond prices. Treasurys lost more than 5% in value in one week.

It was the most volatility experienced in the fixed income markets since the pandemic shock in March 2020.
As a result, tariff proposals were quickly put on hold on April 9th by the US Administration. Over the ensuing weeks a seeming détente settled over the market as the rhetoric cooled somewhat (with the occasional notable hiccup) and investors grasped the impact of a world with tariffs in place.