Market performance for the second quarter of 2024 was mixed as the S&P500 experienced a small gain
while the TSX was slightly negative. During the second quarter, the S&P500 total return was 4.28% in U.S.
dollars. Adjusting for currency, the S&P500 returned +5.35% in Canadian dollars, as the Canadian dollar
depreciated about -0.008 cents, closing the quarter at US$0.7310. The TSX total return was -0.53% in the
second quarter.

Is it possible that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) June projections that reduced the number
of rate cuts for 2024 from three to one are bullish for the stock market? Let’s consider the FOMC’s latest
Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) released on June 12th, 2024 (Exhibit 1). Both Real GDP
Growth and Unemployment expectations for year end 2024 were left unchanged at 2.1% and 4.0%,
respectively, from the March projections (Exhibit 1, blue shaded highlight). This is not surprising given that
the US unemployment rate is going into its third year at or below 4% and real GDP growth as forecasted
by the Atlanta Fed GDPNOW is expected to be 3.0% for Q2 2024, up from 1.4% in Q1 2024 (Exhibit 2).
The Fed did adjust its PCE inflation forecast up slightly from 2.4% to 2.6% by year end (Exhibit 1, yellow
shaded highlight) but recent cooler than expected CPI data suggest that this may be somewhat backward
looking.