Each quarter, our Investment Management teams publish their key observations and portfolio updates across Global Equity and Fixed Income markets. This is a summary of our views for the Third Quarter of 2024. You can download the full reports via the links shown below.

KEY OBSERVATIONS

Yet another good quarter for both the S&P500 and TSX has come to a close, with the S&P 500 up +5.89% in U.S. dollars or +4.59% in Canadian dollars, and the TSX total return up +10.54%. 

The much-anticipated monetary policy easing cycle started earlier this month when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut interest rates by 50 basis points as Chairman Powell signaled that he was shifting from an inflation hawk to an employment dove. That is, he now cares as much about maintaining employment as he does about reducing inflation. 

According to comments from the Fed, we have inflation moving sustainably toward 2%, an unemployment level that, by historical standards, would still be considered low, and a stable real GDP growth outlook of about 2%. 

The fact that the Fed has so far successfully engineered bringing inflation down without causing a credit crunch would seem to continue to support the soft-landing outcome that we’ve been a proponent of for some time. Indeed, our own checklist of economic indicators, including the latest GDPNow forecast for Q3, the payrolls data, the current level of credit spreads, and the performance of regional bank stocks, does not suggest any economic stress is present at this time.

In terms of corporate earnings, the S&P500’s third quarter earnings growth of 11.9% bested the estimated earnings growth of 8.9%, according to FactSet Earnings Insight. Forward earnings estimates have been a pretty good proxy for actual trailing estimates, and they are currently hitting all-time highs with an earnings growth outlook for 2025 and 2026 up 15.1% and 12.4% respectively.

Putting this all together, we think a robust earnings outlook, solid economic growth and lower interest rates is a positive backdrop for further share price appreciation. That said, we could see some near-term volatility leading into the U.S. election. However, beyond the election, if history repeats itself, market performance usually improves, and within the framework we just described, we remain constructive on the market outlook from here.

NORTH AMERICAN EQUITY UPDATE

Peter Jackson, HBSc, MBA, CFA

Chief Investment Officer

Portfolio Manager, North American Equities

Our overall equity exposure increased 1% to 97% and cash decreased from 4% to 3%.  Our U.S. equity exposure is 55% while our Canadian equity exposure is currently 42%. For portfolios invested in our North American plus International Equity strategy, the US and Canada weights will be proportionately less than this given the current 20% allocation to international companies.

Over the past 12 months, we continued to shift our allocation in favour of US equities (+13%) over Canadian equities (-10%). US earnings growth continues to outpace Canadian earnings growth, and this is estimated to continue in 2025 and 2026. While we are not calling for a recession in Canada, we do believe the risk of one is higher, with economic growth slower and unemployment higher here than in the US. That said, so far, we have been seeing interest rates decline faster here in Canada than in the US, which may mitigate that risk. 

We added three new positions during the quarter:

Nvidia Corporation needs no introduction, being the leader in the production of graphics processing units (GPUs) that power Artificial Intelligence (AI). We took advantage of the macro-pullback in the market this summer to initiate a position at a now-reasonable valuation as earnings continue to grow rapidly.

Eli Lilly is a healthcare company that has taken the place of Novo Nordisk in our portfolio, in which we had over a 50% gain. While both Novo and Lilly are strong players in the growing diabetes and obesity market, several factors helped make a compelling case for the switch.

Stantec is a global leader in engineering consultancy with a focus on water and infrastructure. With a strong 5-year compound annual EBITDA growth rate of over 20% and record current backlog, Stantec is positioned to continue to deliver strong operating results.

A detailed review of these companies can be found in the full report per the link above.

 

GLOBAL EQUITY UPDATE

Phil D’Iorio, MBA, CFA
Portfolio Manager, Global Equities

Global equity markets continued their upward climb this quarter. The S&P was up 20.8% over the first three quarters of the year, the strongest such showing since 1997. Key factors that drove markets higher included strong corporate earnings, interest rate cuts around the world, and reduced fears about a global economic recession.

Japan was an exception, with the Tokyo Stock Price Index falling -5.8%. This was partially driven by concern that recent strength in the Yen will weaken Japan’s exporters. However, we do not believe that this will derail the multi-year uptrend in Japan’s equity markets.

In the latest Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey, 79% said that an economic soft landing is now the most likely outcome. We share this view for a number of reasons. Among them, strength in the U.S. and global economies, stock market gains that are broadening out beyond the big tech names, and an absence of recessionary signals from the bond market.

We believe conditions look steady across most of the major economic regions with China as the notable exception. During his most recent press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the U.S. economy is growing at a solid pace and that inflation is coming down. In Europe, the economy is growing modestly and is expected to improve significantly in 2025. Meanwhile, China’s economy continues to struggle in the face of sluggish GDP performance, sagging consumer confidence, and a collapse in property prices. The country recently announced a series of stimulus measures to lower borrowing costs, inject funds into the economy, and ease the mortgage repayment burden for households.

The lead-up to U.S. presidential elections has historically been associated with elevated volatility in the stock market. While we were spared from the market weakness that typically occurs in September, we’ll be on guard for potential volatility during October. Furthermore, we will be ready to act and take advantage of any opportunities that are presented to us.

In our Global strategy, we established new positions in Amphenol and Nvidia during the quarter. In the International strategy, we initiated new positions in 3i Group, Disco Corp, and Recruit Holdings.

A detailed review of each company can be found in the full report per the link above.