Gerald Connor / January 21st, 2016

Like 1999 – A Tale of Two Markets

I’m frustrated. Maybe it’s due to the tough market environment but deep down I think it’s probably because of a conflict between what my head is saying and what my gut is telling me.

Let me start with what my instinct’s sense before taking a little more rational approach to the issues.

My gut has been saying: Look, this market has been on a roll since March, 2009 with only a bit of a shake in 2011. M&A activity is at an all-time high which correlates with market tops and I think there are probably some problems that will surface in emerging markets due to weak commodity prices and the soaring U.S. dollar. Otherwise the market has been straight up. It’s overvalued and we’re due for a correction, which we’re now starting to get. That said, there is reason to believe that we’re further into a setback than most recognize. Nonetheless, volatility and fear don’t seem to be extreme enough to set a solid bottom and valuations still need to come down by about 10% just to get us to fair value, let alone cheap.