Gerald Connor / January 20th, 2017


It seems as though the Christmas season kicked off with the US Presidential election instead of the traditional U.S. Thanksgiving weekend. Is this market for real or is everyone on a sugar plum high and way ahead of themselves? I won’t keep you in suspense; I think we’re at an inflection point provided President-elect Trump can deliver. But let’s not give him all the credit. There were a lot of positive things going on in the market before he got elected. His victory was simply a shot of adrenalin that amplified their impact.

So, it might be helpful to review the foundation underlying this market before we layer on the Trump effect.

The reality is that the market started to change its complexion last spring. That change was set back by the Brexit vote but reasserted itself in July, resulting in a pretty good third quarter. The November election just amplified those changes.

I refer to them as inflection or changes in direction for some of the major “macro” factors influencing the market.