April 7, 2015

“Hitting the Reset Button”

To some extent this market reminds me of the old joke about the hypochondriac that had the epitaph “See, I told you I was sick” inscribed on his tombstone.

Some predictions are eventually right. Similarly, valuations will warn us of a market top. The trouble is, it is notoriously bad at timing and can’t be quantified as to how high is too high. Markets can get more expensive than one could imagine (think “tech bubble” in 2000) and stay there for much longer than one might expect. Unfortunately, this is also true at bottoms when the market can get cheaper than predicted and stay there longer than warranted (now think the 1970’s).