First Quarter 2025 North American Equity Strategy
The S&P500 and TSX hit new highs in January and February only to lose steam in recent weeks. In the US, concerns about inflation due to tariffs and policy uncertainty that could lead to slower economic growth are not helping what was a pretty decent fourth quarter earnings season. In Canada, shifting concerns from tariffs related to fentanyl and the border to annexation are impacting emotions as we head into an election. Perhaps surprisingly though, the impact on the markets during the first quarter was relatively small, although the intra-quarter swings were larger. During the first quarter of 2025, the S&P500 total return was -4.27% in U.S. dollars. Adjusting for currency, the S&P500 returned -4.37% in Canadian dollars, as the Canadian dollar remained flat only changing by 0.02 cents, closing the quarter at $0.6950. The TSX total return was +1.51% in the first quarter.