Each quarter, our Investment Management teams publish their key observations and portfolio updates across Global Equity and Fixed Income markets. This is a summary of our views for the Fourth Quarter of 2023. You can download the full reports via the links shown below.

KEY OBSERVATIONS

After declining -10.3% from its July 31, 2023 high, the S&P 500 increased or rallied +15.9% between its October low and the end of the year. We believe this reversal reflects at least three market headwinds that appear to be shifting into rather potent tailwinds.

The first tailwind is what many are calling the “Fed Pivot.” In December, the US Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates for a third consecutive meeting, and more importantly, the median projection for the Fed Funds target rate was lowered for 2024 and 2025. We are now almost certainly at the peak of the interest rate cycle. The bottom line is that it looks like the Fed is now clearly on the side of those who own stocks.

The second tailwind is an improving inflationary and economic picture. Also in December, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation showed a month-over-month decline for the first time in over three years. Hovering at 2.6% year over year, inflation is not quite at the Fed’s long-run target of 2%, but moving in the right direction. When combined with easing GDP growth, inflation appears to be shifting from a headwind to a moderating tailwind – and without a recession.

The third tailwind is stronger corporate earnings. Profit growth among S&P 500 companies decelerated throughout 2022 (meaning it grew, but at a slower pace). It contracted from Q4 2022 to Q2 2023 (meaning earnings fell). But in Q3 2023, earnings grew +5.8%. We are awaiting results for Q4 2023, but the consensus is that we are now likely entering a phase of sustained earnings growth.

It appears that three of the market’s most significant recent obstacles are now supportive factors. Further, the current bull market is still young from a historical perspective, and judging by previous bull markets, there may be considerably more length and strength to this bull run. 

In any event, an environment of falling interest rates on the back of better inflation prospects and higher earnings growth is a combination of tailwinds that cannot be ignored.

NORTH AMERICAN EQUITY UPDATE

Peter Jackson, HBSc, MBA, CFA

Chief Investment Officer

Portfolio Manager, North American Equities

During the fourth quarter, the S&P500 total return was +11.7% in US dollars or +8.9% in Canadian dollars. The TSX total return was +8.1% in Q4.

Our overall equity exposure increased marginally from 94% to 95% with cash declining from 6% to 5%.  We shifted our allocation in favour of US equities (+5%) over Canadian equities (-4%) with cash making up the difference. 

Canadian real GDP growth declined -1.1% annualized during the third quarter of 2023 and the latest report for October pointed to little rebound so far for the fourth quarter. About 60% of all outstanding mortgages in Canada will come due over the next three years, which will create a further drag as consumers refinance at potentially much higher rates. It is worth noting that most of our Canadian holdings have international revenue, thus limiting our true exposure to the economic environment in Canada.

We added three new investments during the quarter:

Walmart and Amazon: These investments share three key metrics that we think define their respective competitive advantages today: 1) revenues growing faster than their peers and taking additional market share, 2) profitability is starting to turn higher, and 3) valuations at current levels are attractive.

In the case of Walmart,  the company wins in almost any economic environment. Consumers turn to Walmart during inflationary times to stretch their purchasing power. As inflation subsides, it will likely lead in lowering prices, which should drive increased traffic and unit growth. 

In Amazon’s case, before the pandemic, the company was only starting to become profitable. During the pandemic, it had to invest heavily to overhaul its distribution network, which weighed on its profitability. We believe the bulk of the investment is over and that it will now benefit from higher profitability.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals has a global monopoly in cystic fibrosis treatments, which has led to industry-leading sales and profitability, along with an exciting pipeline of other potential therapies, including a non-addictive pain treatment with the potential to compete with opioids. 

A detailed review of each company can be found in the full report per the link above.

GLOBAL EQUITY UPDATE

Phil D’Iorio, MBA, CFA
Portfolio Manager, Global Equities

After a tumultuous 2022, in which both stocks and bonds fell by double digits, stocks came roaring back in 2023. Some of the factors behind this strength were low expectations, the absence of a global recession, and a faster-than-expected decline in the rate of inflation. 

The U.S. proved to be more resilient than expected in 2023, driven by a robust labour market, continuing COVID stimulus, and legislation such as the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS Act. We believe that the probability of a soft landing in 2024 has increased in light of this economic strength, combined with falling global inflation and expected interest rate cuts.

A high dependence on imports and exports hurt the Eurozone economy in 2023. Germany contracted in the third quarter, which is worrisome given its status as the region’s largest economy. Its vast manufacturing sector has struggled due to weak demand from China, elevated energy costs, and significantly higher interest rates. The Eurozone economy should gradually pick up as consumption recovers and inventories are rebuilt. 

Going into 2023, expectations for China were high as it reopened following the COVID lockdowns that crippled the economy for over two years. However, the optimism faded quickly as concerns about the country’s real estate problems resurfaced. Although we expect China to remain weak as 2024 begins, its government has announced a series of stimulus measures and we believe that the economy is in a bottoming process. 

Japan was a bright spot for global equity investors in 2023. The country appears to have emerged from three decades of economic stagnation as the economy expanded at an above-trend pace in both nominal and real terms during 2023. Given that approximately 50% of public companies in Japan are trading at less than 1x book value, there is substantial room for share price appreciation as companies improve their capital efficiency and profitability. We are optimistic about the prospects for Japan going forward.

We added several new investments across a variety of industries during the quarter, including Amazon and TFI International in the Global Strategy portfolio, and Keyence, Partners Group, Sage Group, Universal Music Group, and Wolters Kluwer in the International portfolio. 

 A detailed review of each company can be found in the full report per the link above.

It seems like everyone in the investment world likes to use sports analogies to describe the current economic cycle and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s actions, which recently happened to be a pivot, generally known in the markets as the “Fed Pivot”. Team Powell has two coequal goals for monetary policy: those are maximum employment and low inflation. Exhibit 1 shows the evolution of the Federal Funds target rate (dot plots) by Federal Reserve Board members and Bank presidents. What was indicated at the Fed’s December meeting, and is confirmed in the charts below, was the “Fed Pivot”. That is, they did not raise rates for a third consecutive meeting but more importantly, the median projection for the Fed Funds target rate was lowered for 2024 and 2025.

One of the biggest debates in the market today is whether the U.S. economy is headed for a recession or a soft landing. Given that the United States is the world’s largest economy, the outcome of this debate matters a lot given the implications it would have for the rest of the world. One of the key factors that will impact the outcome of the debate is the rate of inflation. The bears argue that inflation remains far too high and that the U.S. Federal Reserve will need to keep hiking interest rates which will eventually tip the U.S. economy into a recession. Recent inflation data over the last few weeks is not the type of fodder that the bears were hoping for given that both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price index (PPI) declined more than consensus expectations.

As seen in the chart below, the consumer price index for the month of October increased by 3.2% compared to one year ago. This was better than consensus, which called for an increase of 3.3%. The consumer price index is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a broad basket of consumer goods and services.

On a month over month basis, the CPI for October was flat versus September. This is fueling hope that stubbornly high prices are easing their grip on the U.S. economy and that the U.S. Federal Reserve is in a better position to stop raising interest rates. And eventually cut interest rates.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) also delivered results that were better than consensus expectations. During the month of October, the PPI declined by 0.5%. This marked the biggest monthly decline since April of 2020. Consensus was expecting an increase of 0.1% so this result was much better than consensus.

The Producer Price Index measures the average change over time in selling prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. The PPI index measures the price change from the perspective of the seller, which is different than the Consumer Price Index that measures price change from the purchaser’s perspective. It’s good to see that both the CPI and PPI data was better than consensus as it provides more evidence that inflation is falling faster than expected.

In addition to the favourable inflation readings, there was also a positive economic data point with the recent release of the Chicago PMI Index. The Chicago PMI captures manufacturing and non-manufacturing business conditions across Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan. A reading below 50 signals contraction in the economy while a reading above 50 signals expansion in the economy. The Chicago PMI has been in contraction mode for 14 consecutive months. However, November’s reading put an end to the streak as the Chicago PMI surged past consensus expectations. The November reading of 55.8 was well ahead of October’s reading of 44, and ahead of consensus at 46. While 1 month of data is a small sample size, it is encouraging especially given the magnitude of the difference between the actual reading versus consensus.

There is one data point that will encourage the bears and that is the recent release of the Beige Book from the Federal Reserve. According to the Beige Book the economy has slowed in recent weeks as consumers are keeping a closer eye on their spending.

From our perspective, falling inflation and a sudden turn in the Chicago PMI increases the probability of a soft landing in the U.S. economy despite the slowdown that was highlighted in the Beige Book. While nothing is for certain and there are no guarantees in our industry, we are encouraged by the recent data points and believe the likelihood of a soft landing has increased. 

Have a good weekend.

Phil

Each quarter, our Investment Management teams publish their key observations and portfolio updates across Global Equity and Fixed Income markets. This is a summary of our views for the Third Quarter of 2023. You can download the full reports via the links shown below.

KEY OBSERVATIONS

Last quarter, we discussed the likelihood of a soft economic landing given that economic growth was slowing but likely not turning negative, and that the earnings outlook was improving. Since then, market consensus has shifted to agree with our view. The Federal Reserve is also now more positive, with forecasts of higher growth, lower unemployment, and improving inflation. The trade-off appears to one more rate hike expected in 2023 and only two rather than four rate cuts expected in 2024.

As a result of the Fed’s more hawkish tone, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield increased to as high as 4.61% as of this writing, which is a level not seen since 2007. The S&P 500 is also down -6.6% from its July 31st bull market high, and we think this is mostly due to the competition with higher bond yields.

The competition between equity valuations and bond yields can typically resolve itself in a few ways: Bond yields can decline (which should happen if the Fed’s projections for inflation are correct), the earnings outlook can catch up (which effectively lowers the valuation of the market), and/or the market can pull back (which has been happening for the past two months).

US manufacturing activity has continued to decline, but the pace of contraction seems to be slowing. There have been historic examples in the mid-1980s and mid-2010s when soft-landing slowdowns like this have subdued inflation without recessions. It remains possible that the current inflation gets resolved without a recession or any serious long-term implications.

The market often bottoms well ahead of the economy, and it would appear this time is no exception. Some of the best times to invest are when it’s most uncomfortable to do so. We remain cautiously optimistic about equities. While we can’t rule out a further market pullback, we believe the underlying economic fundamentals are improving, the earnings outlook has turned positive, interest rates have peaked or are close to it, and all of these factors should limit the downside as we look out to 2024.

Peter Jackson, HBSc, MBA, CFA

Chief Investment Officer

Portfolio Manager, North American Equities

During the third quarter, the S&P500 total return was -3.27% in US dollars, or -1.22% adjusted for Canadian currency. The TSX total return was -2.20% over the same period.

During the quarter, our overall equity exposure was unchanged at 94%, with cash making up the balance. Our split between US/Canadian equity exposure also remained unchanged at 42% and 52% respectively. We continued to position our portfolio toward value-oriented stocks, which make up 58% of the North American portfolio. This declined from 63% on December 31st, while exposure to growth stocks increased to 34%.

We added two new stock positions during the quarter:

In Canada, TFI International, Inc. provides freight transportation and logistics services. It operates through four segments: Package & Courier, Less-than-Truckload (“LTL”), Truckload, and Logistics. The LTL market has just become less competitive with the recent dissolution of Yellow, a large competitor. With Yellow gone, TFII should gain volume and be able to increase prices. Further, we’ve bought TFII while the shipping industry is weak. Any recovery in general volumes will be accretive to earnings. 

In the United States, Oracle Corporation is a technology company that provides database management, enterprise resource planning (ERP) and human capital management (HCM) applications. Oracle’s business has analogies to Microsoft as it is using its strength in software applications to drive its database and cloud infrastructure businesses. The company has accelerating organic growth due to 1) increasing cloud application revenue, and 2) increasing cloud infrastructure revenue. We think it has a reasonable valuation with earnings expected to grow in low double digits over the next couple of years, faster than the market overall, but it trades at market PE multiple.

A detailed review of each company can be found in the full report per the link above.

GLOBAL EQUITY UPDATE

Phil D’Iorio, MBA, CFA
Portfolio Manager, Global Equities

After a strong first half of the year, global stocks markets took a breather. Equity market declines in North America were matched in Europe and Asia, with the STOXX Europe 600 index falling by 2.5%, and the Nikkei 225 down 4.0%. Nonetheless, global markets have generated respectable year-to-date gains, led by the NASDAQ’s stand-out +26.3% performance.

One of the biggest surprises of 2023 has been the absence of a recession, particularly in the United States. The consensus view at the end of 2022 was that the U.S. economy was headed for a recession in 2023. Instead of a recession, the economy has been resilient, despite the most aggressive interest rate tightening cycle since the 1980s.

In fact, real GDP growth in the U.S. is on pace to hit +2.2% in 2023, while inflation has moderated significantly. Many investors believe that we are at the tail end of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate tightening cycle. Why has the U.S. economy been so resilient? First and foremost, a strong labour market, with the U.S. unemployment rate near 50-year lows.

Both Europe and China remain in a period of stagnation with sub-par economic growth. The European economy suffers from high energy and borrowing costs combined with soft demand from export markets such as China. In China, policymakers are struggling with issues related to the property sector. On a positive note, China’s factory output expanded in September for the first time in six months, fuelling hope that the economy is in the process of bottoming out. 

This year, we have added to our weight in technology. The tech sector generates superior growth to the overall market, above-average returns on invested capital, robust free cash flow, and strong balance sheets. In addition, many of our holdings significantly cut their cost base in anticipation of a recession that did not happen, and stand to gain attractive operating leverage as a result.

The global economy continues to grow at a modest pace and inflation has been cooling. The U.S. manufacturing industry has improved for three consecutive months and could soon move from contraction to expansion. Corporate earnings were resilient during the second quarter and were ahead of consensus expectations. Taking all of this together, we remain positive about the markets as we head towards the finish line in 2023.

A detailed review of each company can be found in the full report per the link above.

Heading into the third quarter of 2023, the outlook for the economy gave investors a few reasons for a little optimism. Inflation had fallen very consistently for a year and measured 2.8% by the end June, not all that far off from the Bank of Canada’s 2% target. The economy, although slowing (GDP growth decreased to 1.8% for the prior 12 months by the end of Q1, and to 1.1% by the end of Q2) was still producing positive output. In addition, the unemployment figures remained surprisingly robust, with the unemployment rate at 5.5%, the net change in the labour force remaining positive (employers were adding to their payrolls), and average hourly earnings measured above 5% (meaning wages grew at a rate greater than 5%).

After a strong first half of the year, global stock markets took a breather during the third quarter. Equity market indexes were down across the board during Q3 with the S&P 500 returning -3.7%, the STOXX Europe 600 index returning -2.5%, and the Nikkei 225 returning -4.0%. Despite the weakness experienced in Q3, global stock markets have generated respectable gains throughout the first nine months of the year. On a year-to-date basis through September 30, the Nikkei 225 has returned +22.1%, the S&P 500 has returned +11.7% and the STOXX Europe 600 index has returned +6%.

Last quarter we discussed the likelihood of a soft economic landing given that economic growth was slowing but likely not turning negative, and the earnings outlook was improving in the back half of 2023 and 2024. Since then, a few positive data points on the inflation front have come in over the summer months to support that hypothesis, and these have been enough to shift market consensus to the soft-landing from recession camp.

Each quarter, our Investment Management teams publish their key observations and portfolio updates across Global Equity and Fixed Income markets. This is a summary of our views for the Second Quarter of 2023. You can download the full reports via the links shown below.

KEY OBSERVATIONS

“The US government won’t default on its debts. There are plenty of jobs. Unit-labor-cost inflation is moderating. The banking crisis is abating. The recession is still a no-show. Earnings were better than expected during Q1 and are probably bottoming during the [second] quarter. The FOMC likely will pause its rate hiking for at least one meeting (they did). Summer is coming. No wonder the S&P 500 sailed to a new 2023 high yesterday.”

That is a summary of “what’s going on” according to respected market-watcher Ed Yardeni, and it’s generally music to our ears, even if it’s not coming from Marvin Gaye…  In other words, his views closely match our own. On June 8th, less than a week after Yardeni wrote this, the S&P500 officially entered a new bull market, up more than 20% from its 52-week low in October 2022. 

During the second quarter, the S&P500 total return was +8.7% in US dollars or +6.4% in Canadian dollars, as the Canadian dollar appreciated about +1.5 cents. The TSX total return was +1.1%. While given technology stocks continued to dominate the performance of the S&P500, we saw considerable widening in the breadth of performance late in the quarter as the market began to price in the possibility of a soft landing rather than a recession.

In terms of valuations, the TSX and the FactSet European index are trading at 10% and 5% discounts to their 20-year averages, respectively. The S&P 500 is trading above its historical average, but this is arguably skewed by a handful of large companies.

Indeed, the 10 largest S&P 500 companies by index weight have outperformed by almost 4x over the past 12 months, and we own five of them (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Facebook and United Health Group). We are balancing these higher-growth holdings against attractive value-oriented names like GM, Elevance Health, Royal Bank, and Rogers Communications, among others.

Overall, we remain constructive on the equity market, notwithstanding the recent rise in prices. While corrections commonly occur during bull markets, we believe that the positive economic fundamentals that we observe should limit the downside. The earnings outlook is improving and, with economic growth slowing but likely not turning strongly negative, interest rates are closer to a peak than a trough, suggesting that equity market valuations are also less of a headwind going forward than they were in early 2022.

Peter Jackson, HBSc, MBA, CFA

Chief Investment Officer

Portfolio Manager, North American Equities

During the quarter, our overall equity exposure was unchanged at 94%. Within the North American investments, our US equity exposure increased from 40% to 42% while our Canadian exposure decreased from 54% to 52%. Cash was unchanged at 6%. 

Currently, our portfolio is positioned toward value-oriented stocks (including financials, consumer discretionary, industrials, energy and materials), which make up 58% of the portfolio, although this has declined from 63% on December 31st. Exposure to growth stocks (including healthcare, information technology and communication services) increased to 34%, up from 29% on December 31st. 

We added the following new stock positions during the 2nd quarter: 

Quebecor Inc. is a Canadian diversified media and telecommunications company based in Montreal. The acquisition of Freedom Mobile has opened a large avenue of growth for a company that has been traditionally restricted to the province of Quebec. We see a long runway ahead for Freedom that is not reflected in the present share price. 

Novo Nordisk is the world’s leading diabetes and obesity pharmaceutical company with a market capitalization of approximately US$360bn. Its Ozempic drug is now the most prescribed GLP-1 product. The company has demonstrated high margins and free cash flow, and a ~45% dividend payout while continuing to invest in its drug pipeline. 

Applied Materials is a leading supplier of advanced equipment, tools, inventory, and maintenance services to logic, memory and analog semiconductor companies. We see the company benefiting from the growth in digitization, automation, and AI, plus onshoring of semiconductor supply chains and a rebound in capital spending.

A detailed review of each company can be found in the full report per the link above.

GLOBAL EQUITY UPDATE

Phil D’Iorio, MBA, CFA
Portfolio Manager, Global Equities

After generating strong gains during the first quarter, global equity markets also continued their upward climb during the second quarter. On a total return basis, the STOXX Europe 600 index returned +2.7%, the Nikkei 225 index was +18.5%, and the Nasdaq gained another +13.1%, taking its year-to-date gain to more than 32% –  its best first half of a year since 1983.

Despite these returns, a great deal of pessimism remains in the market. Several commentators continue to warn about a forthcoming recession. Most are concerned about the potential for a recession in the US given elevated inflation, aggressive monetary tightening, and the fallout from the collapse of several regional banks. Despite these concerns, the U.S. economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience and consumers continue to spend. 

US housing was one of the hardest hit sectors in 2022, but recent data suggests that we could be on the cusp of a rebound. New home sales jumped 12.2% to the highest level since February 2022. A potential rebound in U.S. housing is significant given that the housing sector is one of the largest and most important sectors of the U.S. economy, contributing an estimated 15-18% to GDP.

Inflation continues to move in the right direction as measured by the consumer price index. According to recently published data from the U.S. Labor Department, the inflation rate for the month of May cooled to its lowest annual rate in more than two years.

The global economy is growing at a modest pace, inflation has been moderating in both the U.S. and Europe, and consumer confidence has recently improved in the US. Corporate earnings have proved to be more resilient than the market was expecting. Taking all of this together, we remain cautiously optimistic as the second half of the year gets underway.

During the quarter, we initiated several new positions. In portfolios invested in our Global strategy, we added Applied Materials, Deckers Outdoor, Novo Nordisk, RELX, and YUM! Brands. In the International strategy, we invested in ASML, Hoya, Sony, and YUM China.

A detailed review of each company can be found in the full report per the link above.

After generating strong gains during the first quarter, global equity markets continued their upward climb during the second quarter. On a total return basis, the S&P 500 was +8.7%, the STOXX Europe 600 index returned +2.7 %, and the Nikkei 225 index was +18.5%. The Nasdaq was particularly strong with the index generating a total return of +13.1% during the second quarter. For the first six months of the year, the Technology-heavy Nasdaq index soared by more than 32%, which marks the best first half for the Nasdaq since 1983 when it rose by 37%. The strong gains in the Nasdaq have largely been driven by the excitement surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) and the potential productivity gains that AI could generate for the global economy.

In a reverse from Q1, the Canadian yield curve level (the general, reflecting overall value of interest rates across the curve) shifted higher in Q2, with the more pronounced moves occurring in the short to medium term tenors (encompassing the 3 month to 7 year bonds). This is shown in the Canada Yield Curve chart below. Rates moved higher by an average of almost 60 bps across the curve. As bond investors, you know that when interest rates (yields) rise, bond prices fall, albeit modestly in this case.