Each quarter, our Investment Management teams publish their key observations and portfolio updates across Global Equity and Fixed Income markets. This is a summary of our views for the Third Quarter of 2023. You can download the full reports via the links shown below.

KEY OBSERVATIONS

Last quarter, we discussed the likelihood of a soft economic landing given that economic growth was slowing but likely not turning negative, and that the earnings outlook was improving. Since then, market consensus has shifted to agree with our view. The Federal Reserve is also now more positive, with forecasts of higher growth, lower unemployment, and improving inflation. The trade-off appears to one more rate hike expected in 2023 and only two rather than four rate cuts expected in 2024.

As a result of the Fed’s more hawkish tone, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield increased to as high as 4.61% as of this writing, which is a level not seen since 2007. The S&P 500 is also down -6.6% from its July 31st bull market high, and we think this is mostly due to the competition with higher bond yields.

The competition between equity valuations and bond yields can typically resolve itself in a few ways: Bond yields can decline (which should happen if the Fed’s projections for inflation are correct), the earnings outlook can catch up (which effectively lowers the valuation of the market), and/or the market can pull back (which has been happening for the past two months).

US manufacturing activity has continued to decline, but the pace of contraction seems to be slowing. There have been historic examples in the mid-1980s and mid-2010s when soft-landing slowdowns like this have subdued inflation without recessions. It remains possible that the current inflation gets resolved without a recession or any serious long-term implications.

The market often bottoms well ahead of the economy, and it would appear this time is no exception. Some of the best times to invest are when it’s most uncomfortable to do so. We remain cautiously optimistic about equities. While we can’t rule out a further market pullback, we believe the underlying economic fundamentals are improving, the earnings outlook has turned positive, interest rates have peaked or are close to it, and all of these factors should limit the downside as we look out to 2024.

Peter Jackson, HBSc, MBA, CFA

Chief Investment Officer

Portfolio Manager, North American Equities

During the third quarter, the S&P500 total return was -3.27% in US dollars, or -1.22% adjusted for Canadian currency. The TSX total return was -2.20% over the same period.

During the quarter, our overall equity exposure was unchanged at 94%, with cash making up the balance. Our split between US/Canadian equity exposure also remained unchanged at 42% and 52% respectively. We continued to position our portfolio toward value-oriented stocks, which make up 58% of the North American portfolio. This declined from 63% on December 31st, while exposure to growth stocks increased to 34%.

We added two new stock positions during the quarter:

In Canada, TFI International, Inc. provides freight transportation and logistics services. It operates through four segments: Package & Courier, Less-than-Truckload (“LTL”), Truckload, and Logistics. The LTL market has just become less competitive with the recent dissolution of Yellow, a large competitor. With Yellow gone, TFII should gain volume and be able to increase prices. Further, we’ve bought TFII while the shipping industry is weak. Any recovery in general volumes will be accretive to earnings. 

In the United States, Oracle Corporation is a technology company that provides database management, enterprise resource planning (ERP) and human capital management (HCM) applications. Oracle’s business has analogies to Microsoft as it is using its strength in software applications to drive its database and cloud infrastructure businesses. The company has accelerating organic growth due to 1) increasing cloud application revenue, and 2) increasing cloud infrastructure revenue. We think it has a reasonable valuation with earnings expected to grow in low double digits over the next couple of years, faster than the market overall, but it trades at market PE multiple.

A detailed review of each company can be found in the full report per the link above.

GLOBAL EQUITY UPDATE

Phil D’Iorio, MBA, CFA
Portfolio Manager, Global Equities

After a strong first half of the year, global stocks markets took a breather. Equity market declines in North America were matched in Europe and Asia, with the STOXX Europe 600 index falling by 2.5%, and the Nikkei 225 down 4.0%. Nonetheless, global markets have generated respectable year-to-date gains, led by the NASDAQ’s stand-out +26.3% performance.

One of the biggest surprises of 2023 has been the absence of a recession, particularly in the United States. The consensus view at the end of 2022 was that the U.S. economy was headed for a recession in 2023. Instead of a recession, the economy has been resilient, despite the most aggressive interest rate tightening cycle since the 1980s.

In fact, real GDP growth in the U.S. is on pace to hit +2.2% in 2023, while inflation has moderated significantly. Many investors believe that we are at the tail end of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate tightening cycle. Why has the U.S. economy been so resilient? First and foremost, a strong labour market, with the U.S. unemployment rate near 50-year lows.

Both Europe and China remain in a period of stagnation with sub-par economic growth. The European economy suffers from high energy and borrowing costs combined with soft demand from export markets such as China. In China, policymakers are struggling with issues related to the property sector. On a positive note, China’s factory output expanded in September for the first time in six months, fuelling hope that the economy is in the process of bottoming out. 

This year, we have added to our weight in technology. The tech sector generates superior growth to the overall market, above-average returns on invested capital, robust free cash flow, and strong balance sheets. In addition, many of our holdings significantly cut their cost base in anticipation of a recession that did not happen, and stand to gain attractive operating leverage as a result.

The global economy continues to grow at a modest pace and inflation has been cooling. The U.S. manufacturing industry has improved for three consecutive months and could soon move from contraction to expansion. Corporate earnings were resilient during the second quarter and were ahead of consensus expectations. Taking all of this together, we remain positive about the markets as we head towards the finish line in 2023.

A detailed review of each company can be found in the full report per the link above.

Heading into the third quarter of 2023, the outlook for the economy gave investors a few reasons for a little optimism. Inflation had fallen very consistently for a year and measured 2.8% by the end June, not all that far off from the Bank of Canada’s 2% target. The economy, although slowing (GDP growth decreased to 1.8% for the prior 12 months by the end of Q1, and to 1.1% by the end of Q2) was still producing positive output. In addition, the unemployment figures remained surprisingly robust, with the unemployment rate at 5.5%, the net change in the labour force remaining positive (employers were adding to their payrolls), and average hourly earnings measured above 5% (meaning wages grew at a rate greater than 5%).

After a strong first half of the year, global stock markets took a breather during the third quarter. Equity market indexes were down across the board during Q3 with the S&P 500 returning -3.7%, the STOXX Europe 600 index returning -2.5%, and the Nikkei 225 returning -4.0%. Despite the weakness experienced in Q3, global stock markets have generated respectable gains throughout the first nine months of the year. On a year-to-date basis through September 30, the Nikkei 225 has returned +22.1%, the S&P 500 has returned +11.7% and the STOXX Europe 600 index has returned +6%.

Last quarter we discussed the likelihood of a soft economic landing given that economic growth was slowing but likely not turning negative, and the earnings outlook was improving in the back half of 2023 and 2024. Since then, a few positive data points on the inflation front have come in over the summer months to support that hypothesis, and these have been enough to shift market consensus to the soft-landing from recession camp.

Each quarter, our Investment Management teams publish their key observations and portfolio updates across Global Equity and Fixed Income markets. This is a summary of our views for the Second Quarter of 2023. You can download the full reports via the links shown below.

KEY OBSERVATIONS

“The US government won’t default on its debts. There are plenty of jobs. Unit-labor-cost inflation is moderating. The banking crisis is abating. The recession is still a no-show. Earnings were better than expected during Q1 and are probably bottoming during the [second] quarter. The FOMC likely will pause its rate hiking for at least one meeting (they did). Summer is coming. No wonder the S&P 500 sailed to a new 2023 high yesterday.”

That is a summary of “what’s going on” according to respected market-watcher Ed Yardeni, and it’s generally music to our ears, even if it’s not coming from Marvin Gaye…  In other words, his views closely match our own. On June 8th, less than a week after Yardeni wrote this, the S&P500 officially entered a new bull market, up more than 20% from its 52-week low in October 2022. 

During the second quarter, the S&P500 total return was +8.7% in US dollars or +6.4% in Canadian dollars, as the Canadian dollar appreciated about +1.5 cents. The TSX total return was +1.1%. While given technology stocks continued to dominate the performance of the S&P500, we saw considerable widening in the breadth of performance late in the quarter as the market began to price in the possibility of a soft landing rather than a recession.

In terms of valuations, the TSX and the FactSet European index are trading at 10% and 5% discounts to their 20-year averages, respectively. The S&P 500 is trading above its historical average, but this is arguably skewed by a handful of large companies.

Indeed, the 10 largest S&P 500 companies by index weight have outperformed by almost 4x over the past 12 months, and we own five of them (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Facebook and United Health Group). We are balancing these higher-growth holdings against attractive value-oriented names like GM, Elevance Health, Royal Bank, and Rogers Communications, among others.

Overall, we remain constructive on the equity market, notwithstanding the recent rise in prices. While corrections commonly occur during bull markets, we believe that the positive economic fundamentals that we observe should limit the downside. The earnings outlook is improving and, with economic growth slowing but likely not turning strongly negative, interest rates are closer to a peak than a trough, suggesting that equity market valuations are also less of a headwind going forward than they were in early 2022.

Peter Jackson, HBSc, MBA, CFA

Chief Investment Officer

Portfolio Manager, North American Equities

During the quarter, our overall equity exposure was unchanged at 94%. Within the North American investments, our US equity exposure increased from 40% to 42% while our Canadian exposure decreased from 54% to 52%. Cash was unchanged at 6%. 

Currently, our portfolio is positioned toward value-oriented stocks (including financials, consumer discretionary, industrials, energy and materials), which make up 58% of the portfolio, although this has declined from 63% on December 31st. Exposure to growth stocks (including healthcare, information technology and communication services) increased to 34%, up from 29% on December 31st. 

We added the following new stock positions during the 2nd quarter: 

Quebecor Inc. is a Canadian diversified media and telecommunications company based in Montreal. The acquisition of Freedom Mobile has opened a large avenue of growth for a company that has been traditionally restricted to the province of Quebec. We see a long runway ahead for Freedom that is not reflected in the present share price. 

Novo Nordisk is the world’s leading diabetes and obesity pharmaceutical company with a market capitalization of approximately US$360bn. Its Ozempic drug is now the most prescribed GLP-1 product. The company has demonstrated high margins and free cash flow, and a ~45% dividend payout while continuing to invest in its drug pipeline. 

Applied Materials is a leading supplier of advanced equipment, tools, inventory, and maintenance services to logic, memory and analog semiconductor companies. We see the company benefiting from the growth in digitization, automation, and AI, plus onshoring of semiconductor supply chains and a rebound in capital spending.

A detailed review of each company can be found in the full report per the link above.

GLOBAL EQUITY UPDATE

Phil D’Iorio, MBA, CFA
Portfolio Manager, Global Equities

After generating strong gains during the first quarter, global equity markets also continued their upward climb during the second quarter. On a total return basis, the STOXX Europe 600 index returned +2.7%, the Nikkei 225 index was +18.5%, and the Nasdaq gained another +13.1%, taking its year-to-date gain to more than 32% –  its best first half of a year since 1983.

Despite these returns, a great deal of pessimism remains in the market. Several commentators continue to warn about a forthcoming recession. Most are concerned about the potential for a recession in the US given elevated inflation, aggressive monetary tightening, and the fallout from the collapse of several regional banks. Despite these concerns, the U.S. economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience and consumers continue to spend. 

US housing was one of the hardest hit sectors in 2022, but recent data suggests that we could be on the cusp of a rebound. New home sales jumped 12.2% to the highest level since February 2022. A potential rebound in U.S. housing is significant given that the housing sector is one of the largest and most important sectors of the U.S. economy, contributing an estimated 15-18% to GDP.

Inflation continues to move in the right direction as measured by the consumer price index. According to recently published data from the U.S. Labor Department, the inflation rate for the month of May cooled to its lowest annual rate in more than two years.

The global economy is growing at a modest pace, inflation has been moderating in both the U.S. and Europe, and consumer confidence has recently improved in the US. Corporate earnings have proved to be more resilient than the market was expecting. Taking all of this together, we remain cautiously optimistic as the second half of the year gets underway.

During the quarter, we initiated several new positions. In portfolios invested in our Global strategy, we added Applied Materials, Deckers Outdoor, Novo Nordisk, RELX, and YUM! Brands. In the International strategy, we invested in ASML, Hoya, Sony, and YUM China.

A detailed review of each company can be found in the full report per the link above.

After generating strong gains during the first quarter, global equity markets continued their upward climb during the second quarter. On a total return basis, the S&P 500 was +8.7%, the STOXX Europe 600 index returned +2.7 %, and the Nikkei 225 index was +18.5%. The Nasdaq was particularly strong with the index generating a total return of +13.1% during the second quarter. For the first six months of the year, the Technology-heavy Nasdaq index soared by more than 32%, which marks the best first half for the Nasdaq since 1983 when it rose by 37%. The strong gains in the Nasdaq have largely been driven by the excitement surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) and the potential productivity gains that AI could generate for the global economy.

In a reverse from Q1, the Canadian yield curve level (the general, reflecting overall value of interest rates across the curve) shifted higher in Q2, with the more pronounced moves occurring in the short to medium term tenors (encompassing the 3 month to 7 year bonds). This is shown in the Canada Yield Curve chart below. Rates moved higher by an average of almost 60 bps across the curve. As bond investors, you know that when interest rates (yields) rise, bond prices fall, albeit modestly in this case.

So “What’s Going On” according to Ed Yardeni June 2nd, 2023.
This quote was music to our ears even if it was not from Marvin Gaye. It is in line with our current thinking at Cumberland and pretty much summed up what happened in the second quarter. In fact, the S&P500 officially entered a new bull market on June 8th, up more than 20% from its 52-week low of 3577.03 on October 12th, 2022.

Each quarter, our Investment Management teams publish their key observations and portfolio updates across Global Equity and Fixed Income markets. This is a summary of our views for the First Quarter of 2023 You can download the full reports via the links shown below.

KEY OBSERVATIONS

It’s hard to believe that we saw positive returns from both the S&P 500 (+7.5%) and TSX (+4.6%) during the first quarter. After all, inflation is still high, the Federal Reserve continued to increase interest rates, consensus earnings declined, and we witnessed the second largest bank failure in US history.

The bank failures in the US and Europe may be a drag on growth going forward, but we do not anticipate a wider crisis. We currently have no exposure to US banks, little exposure to European banks and some exposure to Canadian Banks. Canadian Banks are consistently more profitable than US and European banks and carefully regulated, so when problems do occur, they can usually manage without the need for external capital. 

Despite the banking turmoil, the Fed increased rates 25 basis points or +0.25%, bringing the upper end of the federal funds rate to 5.0%. They maintained their 2023 target rate of 5.1% and raised their 2024 target to 4.3% from 4.1%. In contrast, the fixed income market seems to have priced in about -0.85% of rate decreases this year. The question now is whether this reflects an expectation of lower inflation and slower growth, or a recession. Either way, it’s clear that the rate hiking cycle is virtually over.

We continue to believe that, if a recession does materialize, it will be relatively mild. Global banks are well-capitalized and businesses and consumers are significantly less exposed to credit and leverage risk than they have been historically. In addition, unlike a year ago, with interest rates now higher the Fed now has some room to maneuver its policy. In other words, if the economy slows too quickly, they can cut rates.

Consensus S&P 500 corporate earnings estimates for 2023 and 2024 have fallen nearly -12% and -11%, respectively, from their peaks in the spring of 2022. However, valuations (the price investors are willing to pay for a dollar of a company’s earnings) are now much more reasonable and almost two-thirds of S&P 500 companies are showing positive 3-month percent changes in forward earnings. Both of these factors are positive for stock prices.

We remain confident in the long-term outlook for our portfolio holdings given their robust free cash flow and strong balance sheets. We believe that these types of companies are best positioned to weather any storm that might arise.

Peter Jackson, HBSc, MBA, CFA

Chief Investment Officer

Portfolio Manager, North American Equities

We have continued to position our portfolios toward value-oriented stocks. Value stocks now make up 61% of the portfolio. Our exposure to growth stocks increased slightly to 31% of the portfolio. Staples, which we don’t classify as either growth or value, make up the balance of our equity exposure.

We added a number of new stock positions during the quarter, including: 

BCE Inc. represents a stable and defensive investment in uncertain times, where you are “paid to wait” with an excellent dividend that currently yields about 6%.

Canfor Corporation is a contrarian deep-value cyclical investment. Their lumber operations stand to benefit from eventual declining interest rates and higher housing demand as a result.

General Motors Company has made significant investments in R&D and supply chain. Based on this, among other positive factors, and given its current valuation, we expect GM stock to perform well.

Avery Dennison Corporation is a global materials science and manufacturing company that we believe will grow earnings faster than the market, which provides good share price appreciation potential for investors.

Meta Platforms has over 3 billion monthly users across Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp and we expect strong earnings from cost cuts and rebounding ad sales. In addition, Meta has invested heavily in the Metaverse over recent years, and these capital expenditures are virtually complete, allowing the company to profit. 

A more detailed review of each company can be found in the full report per the link above.

GLOBAL EQUITY UPDATE

Phil D’Iorio, MBA, CFA
Portfolio Manager, Global Equities

After a challenging year in 2022, global equity markets more broadly also generated positive returns during the first quarter of 2023 with all the major geographic regions in the green. In addition to gains in the US and Canada, the STOXX Europe 600 index climbed by +7.8%, the Nikkei 225 increased by +7.5%, and the Emerging Markets collectively generated a positive return of +4%. 

Some of the factors driving these returns include falling inflation, better than expected economic data in the US and Europe, as well as enthusiasm related to the reopening of China’s economy.

In terms of inflation, the headline figures continue to fall in both Europe and the US. Preliminary readings showed that Eurozone headline inflation fell to 6.9% during the month of March, down from 8.5% in February. In the US, the consumer price index increased by +6% from a year earlier, a decline from 6.4% in January and down from the 40-year high of 9.1% in June of 2022.

We remain cautiously optimistic in our outlook for 2023. Given last year’s significant market declines, stocks are trading at more reasonable valuations. In addition, inflation measures have been falling and the red hot job market is finally showing signs of cooling. When combining these developments with what’s happened in the banking sector, we believe that central banks are nearing the end of their interest rate hiking cycle.

During the first quarter, as described above we re-initiated a position in Meta Platforms. We had previously invested in the company, but sold our entire position back in February of 2022 when Mark Zuckerberg gave specific guidance on how much money it was going to spend on the Metaverse. Since we sold it, the stock fell by 70%. 

Fast forward one year later, the company announced a strategic pivot in terms of its capital allocation. In addition to the tailwinds from its cost reduction efforts, Meta also has a potential opportunity should TikTok get banned in the United States. We also believe that Meta will benefit from the boom in artificial intelligence that will play out in the years ahead.

A more detailed review can be found in the full report per the above link.

The drivers of positive fixed income returns for Q1 2023, in no particular order, were the effective management of the isolated bank liquidity crisis, the central banks’ (Canada and the US) higher interest rate policies and the increase in corporate interest rate spreads (incremental return over government bond yields). After this positive start for fixed income investors, based on the fundamentals we continue to see, we retain our positive bias for income investments for the remainder of the year.