The first quarter of 2016 proved to be another see-saw quarter in fixed income markets. The quarter started with volatility consistent with that experienced in equity markets. Continued concerns over China’s growth rate, a slowdown in the North American manufacturing sector, and fallout from collapsing commodity prices steered the markets to traditional safe-haven sectors such as government bonds through to mid-February. During that time, the word “recession” appeared with greater frequency in the financial media and published investment research reports. As seems to be the case with all “crises” post the 2008 Lehman bank failure, this risk of recession “crisis” came and passed, at least for now. As we worked through the last six weeks of the quarter, the risk of recession pricing in the bond market largely unwound. The Cumberland Income Fund’s diversified positioning and elevated short-term bond holdings dampened much of the volatility. The Fund also opportunistically deployed capital (cash) into the higher yielding environment prevalent during the quarter, consistent with our stated strategy.
Regular readers of Cumberland Income Fund quarterly reviews will recall that “increased volatility” is a theme we have threaded throughout our commentaries in 2015. The fourth quarter of 2015 continued on that theme in earnest. Disappointing economic data, low commodity prices, and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s first rate hike in 9.5 years caused material swings in currency, equity, and bond markets. As we exit 2015 and enter 2016 we expect the heightened levels of volatility to continue not only because of global growth uncertainty, but as a result of markets “recalibrating” to a less accommodating Fed. With the central bank of the world’s largest economy finally achieving the much anticipated “lift off” of the fed funds rate in December and hinting at further rate-hikes in 2016, investors are anticipating a headwind not felt in quite a while. Closer to home, the continuing deterioration in commodity prices is causing the Canadian dollar to depreciate and the Bank of Canada to publically discuss unconventional tools to further ease monetary policy. Managing volatility amongst these cross-currents remains the priority of the Cumberland Income Fund. The Fund continues to focus on holding investments and deploying capital with a longer-term view into securities offering stable and sustainable income generation while preserving capital. In the shorter-term, this philosophy prioritizes dampening “downside” risk over participating in “upside” bond market volatility, a strategy we expect to have greater sustainability over the long-run.
Third Quarter Review and Outlook Cumberland Income Fund September 2015
Central Bank decision making continued to fuel volatility in fixed income markets during the third quarter of 2015. The pick-up in volatility that had surfaced in the government bond market during the first quarter finally migrated over to other asset classes including high yield bonds and equities in the third quarter, triggered primarily by a change in China’s foreign exchange policy in August. Aside from bonds issued by the Government of Canada, the other income sectors including local government bonds (provincial, municipal), corporate bonds (investment grade and high yield), and dividend paying equities (preferred and common) all declined in value during the quarter as investors reduced exposure to risk assets. The Cumberland Income Fund’s strategy of owning a diversified group of income-producing securities while keeping cash and short-term securities levels elevated mitigated the majority of the negative performance in the sectors mentioned above during the quarter.
..
Second Quarter Review and Outlook Cumberland Income Fund June 2015
The second quarter of 2015 can be primarily characterized by the reversal of the outsized gains generated by major global bond markets in the first quarter of 2015. Moreover, in Canada, other than high yield bonds generally, all income producing sub-asset classes generated negative returns during the quarter. Government bonds, investment grade corporate bonds, preferred shares, and dividend paying common stocks were all under pressure. Uncertainty over both the strength of the Canadian economy and the potential policy response by the Bank of Canada permitted the high level of volatility experienced in the first quarter to persist during the second quarter. The peak of the Greek crisis and jarring selloff of the Chinese stock market then punctuated quarter end causing a flightto-safety into sovereign bonds globally, including Canada. Cumberland continues to be positioned to reduce the level of volatility currently experienced in fixed income markets generally by keeping duration low and by holding a diversified portfolio of incomegenerating securities.
…
First Quarter Review and Outlook Cumberland Income Fund March 2015
Monetary policy decisions by central banks around the world during the first quarter of 2015 increased volatility in fixed income markets and fueled further demand for sovereign bonds globally. Meanwhile, corporate spreads (the yield premium investors’ demand for owning corporate bonds over government bonds) were mixed during the quarter depending on the bond’s maturity and credit rating, however, overall spreads remained stable. Cumberland’s income strategy continues to be positioned to dampen the volatility from large swings in interest rates and the impact of changing monetary policy. Additionally, prudently managing credit risk remains central to our objective of generating a stable income stream meaningfully greater than inflation while simultaneously preserving capital.
…
Fourth Quarter Review and Outlook Cumberland Income Fund December 2014
In the fourth quarter, the Cumberland Income Fund was positioned to protect capital from the impact of rising interest rates. However, interest rates instead headed lower during the quarter defying a strengthening U.S. economy and rewarding holders of low yielding, longdated government bonds with capital gains. The Cumberland Income Fund gained +0.7% during the fourth quarter of 2014 compared to the gain of +2.7% posted by the FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond Index during the same period. For the year ended 2014, the Fund gained +5.3% while the FTSE TMX Index gained +8.8%. The persistent decline in long-dated bond yields, of which the index is much more heavily weighted, was the main contributor to the difference in performance. During the fourth quarter, there was a significant divergence amongst the different bond market sectors for the first time in 2014. For example, government bonds1 returned +3.0% during the quarter as ultra-low government bond yields drifted even lower thereby driving bond prices higher. On the other hand, high yield bonds2, typically identified as bonds issued by “riskier” companies, posted their first quarterly loss since the third quarter of 2011. The difference in returns can be explained by the “global growth scare” experienced during the quarter. The obliteration of global oil prices, weak economic data out of Europe and a deceleration of growth in China all led to a flightto-safety into government bonds. The Cumberland Income Fund continues to structure the portfolio in a way that is somewhat agnostic to this volatility in fund flows by concentrating holdings in shorter-dated investment grade and high yield bonds and to a lesser extent, dividend-paying common stocks with attractive risk-reward characteristics. Consequently, during outsized moves in longer-dated bond yields (and hence prices) such as the move experienced this quarter, the Fund’s performance will deviate from that of a reference bond index.
Third Quarter Review and Outlook Cumberland Income Fund October 2014
The Cumberland Income Fund gained +0.7% during the third quarter of 2014 compared to the gain of +1.1% posted by the FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond Index during the same period. The Fund has gained +4.7% year-to-date and +6.4% year-over-year, while the FTSE TMX Index has gained +5.9% year-to-date and +6.3% year-over-year. As evidence of an improving economy continued to build up during the quarter, and in particular an improving labor market, speculation of “when”, not “if”, the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) would increase the federal funds rate took center stage. Yet commentary from both Fed officials and market participants seemed to bring little consensus as to when we could expect that change. The fixed income markets seemed to have settled on there being a 50/50 chance of the Fed moving next summer, while the Federal Reserve Committee members’ forecasts imply a move as early as next spring. At Cumberland, our fixed income strategy has been positioned for continued modest North American economic growth, precisely what the reported economic indicators had been suggesting throughout the quarter. However, as was the case in the second quarter, longer-term interest rates, which are less impacted by direct Fed interest rate policy, continue on a downward trend, contrary to an upward trend that would be typical with the back drop of an improving economy.
…
Second Quarter Review and Outlook Cumberland Income Fund July 2014
The Cumberland Income Fund gained +1.7% during the second quarter of 2014 compared to the gain of +2.0% posted by the FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond Index during the same period. The Fund has gained +3.9% year-to-date and +6.8% year-over-year, while the FTSE TMX Index has gained +4.8% year-to-date and +5.3% year-over-year. Bond yields (interest rates) continue to defy expectations as we progress through 2014 with the divergence between the economic data and the direction of bond yields widening during the quarter. Despite evidence that the first quarter slowdown in the North American economy was a weather-related phenomenon, and therefore temporary, bond yields continued their descent lower during the second quarter. That is, economic data in general improved greater than the market expected, yet contrary to a typical bond market reaction, bond yields declined (and bond prices increased). The Fund’s positioning remained skewed to a rising rate environment throughout the quarter with the expectation that the ending of the first quarter’s “polar vortex” would reveal that the economy is on a much more solid footing than recently reported. The data did come in stronger than expected, yet bond yields failed to react. However, Cumberland’s strategy of holding a diversified set of asset classes in addition to investment grade bonds, including high yield bonds, preferred and dividend-paying common stocks was instrumental in offsetting the reduced exposure to interest rate risk within the portfolio.
…
Cumberland Income Fund First Quarter 2014 Review and Outlook
The Cumberland Income Fund gained +2.1% during the first quarter of 2014 compared to the gain of +2.8% posted by the FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond Index during the same period. On a year over year basis, the Fund has gained +4.7% while the FTSE TMX Index has gained +0.8%. There was a “flight to safety” tone in the bond market during the quarter, triggered by weaker than expected economic data and geopolitical concerns, resulting in declining interest rates (bond yields) and consequently higher bond prices. These concerns were partially offset by a signal from the U.S. Federal Reserve that the interest rate tightening cycle may start earlier than expected. At Cumberland, we continue to maintain our view that bond yields will drift higher over the medium term putting downward pressure on bond prices, brought about by a gradually improving global economy and the Federal Reserve’s gradual exit from its bond buying program (Quantitative Easing or QE). Consistent with our strategy in recent quarters we have maintained our focus on preserving capital by keeping the Fund’s duration low (thereby keeping the sensitivity of bond price changes due to changes in interest rates low). Moreover, the Fund continues to generate income by holding higher-yielding corporate bonds, preferred shares, and dividend-paying common equities that have attractive risk/reward characteristics, in our view.
…
Cumberland Income Fund 2013 Year End Review and Outlook
The Cumberland Income Fund gained +1.7% during the fourth quarter of 2013 compared to the gain of +0.4% posted by the DEX Universe Bond Index during the same period. Forthe year ended 2013,the Fund gained +4.5% while the DEXdeclined -1.2%. Erratic economic data and changes to both U.S. fiscal and monetary policy contributed to another quarter of heightened volatility in bond yields. But ultimately, it was the U.S. Federal Reserve’s pre-Christmas announcement of the muchspeculated reduction of its bond purchase program (the “taper”) that drove up bond yields to levels not seen for two-and-a-half years. The change in U.S. monetary policy caused investors to sell government bonds, driving bond prices lower. During the quarter, Cumberland maintained its focus on preservation of capital in anticipation of the likely inevitable rise in interest rates. The Income Fund’s strategy has been to keep duration low (lower sensitivity to changes in bond prices due to changes in interestrates) and to selectively allocate to higher yielding corporate bonds, preferred shares, and dividend-payin