Global Equity and International Fund Strategies First Quarter 2015 Review

Global Macro Review We had the opportunity to attend a key Asia Pacific investment conference in Hong Kong during the quarter. A number of high profile speakers provided an interesting overview of topics that were current. One of the speakers that resonated the mood of today’s market was Professor Shiller, a Nobel Laureate and noted real estate expert. He observed that global asset prices have decoupled somewhat from economic fundamentals, driven higher in part by investors hoping to weather rapid economic changes and fearing for their futures. He continued to speak of an overall anxiety, reflecting a time where people are thinking of their own obsolescence and the speed of how things change. We shall start this quarterly review with a conclusion provided by Professor Shiller which is to be invested in stocks globally while downplaying U.S. equities given the relatively cheaper valuation found in Asian and European stock markets.

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Global Equity and International Fund Strategies Fourth Quarter 2014 Review

Global Macro Review The world in 2014 was turbulent and challenging. Key events included: the militant group Islamic State (ISIS) creating terror with their conquests and displacing hundreds of thousands of people, the Ebola virus causing a global health crisis, conflict between Israel and Hamas erupting once again, and the Ukraine exploding into military conflict. The unfortunate thing about these issues on an ongoing basis is that they may challenge sustainable global growth.

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Global Equity and International Fund Strategies Third Quarter 2014 Review

We had the opportunity to spend part of September meeting with companies in Tokyo, Seoul, London and Paris to conduct our due diligence on potential investments and obtain updates on a number of our current holdings. We thought we would focus this quarterly review on the highlights from these meetings as well as our observations.

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Global Equity and International Fund Strategies Second Quarter 2014 Review

The U.S. market had much to celebrate on Independence Day given that the Dow had reached a new record high of 17,000. And yet, five years after the global recession of 2009, global growth is low and a high level of caution still exists among both investors and corporations. When we review the issues we discussed in the first quarter, we see that circumstances in the market are no longer dire, which may explain why the levels of volatility in the markets are at an all-time low. Yet, the geopolitical risks have not gone away, with the Middle East and Russia being omnipresent in crisis mode. However, the markets appear to have priced in the risks and thus, they are no longer front page news each day. The negative stance towards emerging markets has also subsided.

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Global Equity and International Fund Strategies First Quarter 2014 Review

After the majority of world markets performed exceptionally well in 2013, the first quarter of 2014 can be characterized as a market having little direction. There are many intertwined issues with increasing complexity and no particular issue has been taking leadership. On a macro level, we have come to accept a slower economic growth scenario globally in certain areas such as Europe and the emerging markets and central banks continuing to play a key role in financial markets. On a micro level,the companies in our portfolio had released their year-end numbers by quarter-end and provided guidance for the coming year. We found markets did not reward companies when they beat expectations to the same extent as in the past butrather companies were punished if their guidance was either cautious or not as robust as expected.

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Global Equity and International Fund Strategies 2013 Year End Review and Outlook

Year End Review

It has been five years since the collapse of Lehman Brothers almost sank the global economy and 2013 arguably marked the year when the financial crisis came to an end. Conventional as well as unconventional methods were used by central banks, especially in the U.S. and Japan to aid economic expansion. As has been the case for the past three years, there have been obstacles in the way of the economic recovery, but the U.S. has managed to keep growing slowly, despite the first partial government shutdown in seventeen years that led to a loss of 0.6% of output for the quarter. The annual U.S. budget deficit has declined dramatically from 10% of GDP in the wake of the financial crisis to the current level of less than 4% with continuous improvement expected in the coming years.

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International Fund and Global Equity Strategy Third Quarter Review

This quarter marked the fifth anniversary of the financial market collapse. Rather than just merely surviving, the global financial markets have thrived. While there continues to be a cautious sentiment toward the health of the global economy, U.S. stock markets were just shy of all-time highs in the third quarter. The market continues to focus on the Federal Reserve’s policies and actions, which was evident in the recent positive reaction to the Fed’s decision to maintain its current program of purchasing of bonds and keep interest rates from rising

Cumberland Global Equity Mandate and International Fund Second Quarter Review

Global equities (MSCI World Index) are up 8.8% (US$) or 15.1% (C$) year to date while commodities are down marginally in US$ and global bonds are on course to have their worst quarter of performance since the first quarter of 2009. In addition, gold ended its worst quarter since the start of modern gold trading in 1974. The Dow Jones IndustrialAverage is up 13.8% in the first six months of the year while the S&P 500 is up 12.6%. The U.S. market had its best start to a year since 1999, with the market going through record territory. Yet, the optimism quickly disappeared during June. On a global basis, U.S. stocks consistently ranked among the outperformers during the first half of the year. The big winner is Japan with a gain of 15% (US$) or 33% (JPY), the difference resulting from the substantial decline in the Yen.

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Cumberland Global Mandate and International Fund First Quarter Review

Global equities are up 7.8% (US$) or 10.3% (C$) year to date while commodities are up 1.4% (US$) and global bonds are on course to have their worst quarter of performance since the first quarter of 2009. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 finished the quarter at a new closing record. The S&P 500 was up 10% (US$) for the quarter, which was the best first quarter since 1998 and surpassing its previous high reached on October 9, 2007. Given how challenging the last four years have been, it makes this record all that more remarkable. The S&P 500 is up 131% (US$) from its March 9, 2009 low of 676.53 where its cumulative market capitalization fell to US$5.9 trillion. It has now rebounded to nearly US$14 trillion.

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